Why September is a red month for Bitcoin, and why the best may be yet to come

Bitcoin in September: A Seasonal Slump

For seasoned Bitcoin watchers, the phrase "September slump" rings familiar, and it's not without reason. Historically, Bitcoin has underperformed during the month of September, often ending in the red. But don’t panic: the fall dip may just be the calm before the year-end rally.

Let’s explore why Bitcoin tends to stumble in September, and why the months that follow often bring some of the year’s biggest gains.

The Data Doesn’t Lie: September Is a Historical Outlier

Since Bitcoin began trading on public markets, September has consistently been the worst-performing month. Based on data from 2013 to 2023:

• Bitcoin saw negative returns in 8 out of 10 Septembers.

• The average return for September sits around -5% to -8%.

  
  

This pattern holds up even in bullish years. For example, in 2021,Bitcoin dropped over 7% in September before rallying to all-time highs by November.

So, what gives?

Why September Is Tough on Bitcoin

1. Global Macro Uncertainty

September marks the return of institutional traders from summer break. With Q4 ahead, many funds begin portfolio rebalancing, triggering sell pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, equity markets, which increasingly correlate with crypto, also tend to underperform in September. This enduring sentiment drags Bitcoin with it.

2. Profit Taking After Summer Rallies

Bitcoin often enjoys modest gains during July and August, especially in bullish years. But as traders eye the final quarter, many choose to take profits in September, waiting to re-enter at lower levels or ahead of major events like ETF approvals or halving cycles.

3. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Because September's downtrend is so well known, it influences trader psychology. Anticipating a dip, investors preemptively sell, reinforcing the pattern.

The Fourth Quarter Comeback: Why October to December Shine

Here's the good news: the market often turns around dramatically in Q4.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance in October, November, and December:

• October: Known in the crypto community as “Uptober,” it has averaged double-digit gains in multiple years.

• November: Often sees momentum carry over, with the 2020 and 2021 rallies culminating in November highs.

• December: While more mixed, it’s still positive in many years, especially in bull markets.

Why the shift?

1. Retail and Institutional Momentum

Q4 often brings a surge of new capital into the market. Retail investors become more active as year-end narratives pick up, and institutions look to maximize returns before closing their books.

2. Major Announcements and Catalysts

Bitcoin ETFs, central bank policy changes, halving countdown hype, and end-of-year outlooks all tend to concentrate in Q4, sparking optimism and momentum.

3. Seasonal and Sentiment Reversal

As the September fear fades, the narrative flips: Bitcoin is “on sale,” and investors position for what they believe could be the next breakout.

What This Means for HoneyBadger Customers

If you’re new to Bitcoin or a seasoned HODLer, it’s important to zoom out and think long term. While September can be a rocky ride, it has historically set the stage for strong finishes to the year.

At HoneyBadger, we believe in empowering Canadians with the knowledge to navigate crypto cycles confidently. Whether you’re buying for your first time at one of our Bitcoin ATMs or managing a growing portfolio, understanding these patterns helps you make smarter decisions.

Don’t let the September dip shake your conviction. History shows the real action might be just around the corner.

Need help navigating the crypto markets? Reach out to our support team or find a HoneyBadger Bitcoin ATM near you.

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